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Licensed to Kill – Irish Road Safety Authority

The Irish Road Safety Authority (RSA) was set up to fail and has proved its impotence through the recent rise in the number of road fatalities. At a fundamental level, the failures of the RSA are due to a single foundational false premise. As an illustration, consider the response of the government to combat the rising trend in road deaths in 2022. The Minister for State at the Department of Transport, Hildegard Naughton doubled speeding fines in October of that year. As a safety strategy it was a total failure because the number of deaths for 2023 on Irish roads increased by nearly a fifth. Moreover, when measured over two years, the increase was a staggering 41%. That should have set alarm bells ringing at government level and prompted an investigation into the operation and effectiveness of the RSA, but nothing happened.

A big clue to finding the single false premise is to look at composition of the board of the RSA and their qualifications. The board is chaired by Liz O’Donnell, a former politician and law graduate. Dr. Derek Cawley, a surgeon and Dr John Cronin is an emergency medicine consultant. Sarah is Johnson, a lawyer with claimed expertise in public contracts and procurement. Ashling Cunningham is an experienced chief information officer at Irish Life Group, Dónall Curtin, described as an experienced accountant, and finally Dave Montgomery is also an accountant. That’s it! A board comprised of doctors, lawyers, and accountants with not one single person with expertise in safety. [i] Is that fact not surprising!

The global safety industry is populated with well-intentioned people who think safety planning and strategy is easy and intuitive. Consequently, incompetence is rife throughout the discipline of safety regulation and governance, but perhaps troublingly, that includes its most competent arena, aviation safety.

Princess Dianna is certainly one of the most famous road fatalities in history, but her death was entirely due to poor quality road safety management. The road crash that led to her death had other causal factors whereupon the public gaze has been directed. It might appear cynical, but it is all too common to witness various authorities apportioning blame for causing accidents to drivers, to avoid accepting any blame landing on their shoulders. When investigators are only concerned with apportioning blame to people, it should trigger warnings that their analysis is likely to be inept. As their sole focus is on punishment, they can play no role in the prevention of future accidents.

Aviators have a motto, “aeroplanes bite fools”, meaning that incompetence is rapidly exposed. However, a second aviators’ motto holds that humans are not well suited to the anticipation of potential dangers, “the lessons of safety are learnt in the graveyard”. As an example, take the two 737 Max crashes, they exposed the many “fools” working not only for Boeing but for the regulatory safety authority, the FAA. The use of the common term “fool” in the aviators’ proverb might lead you to believe that aeroplanes only bite stupid people but that could not be further from the truth. Read the crash investigation reports into the two space shuttle disasters and note that many highly educated and qualified people made some very silly and elementary errors that led to the loss of multiple lives.

For those who are interested in, and study safety, it begs the question, why do humans only start to learn lessons after the graveyards have started to fill up with victims? Victims whose deaths were easily preventable, in hindsight.

The 737 Max crashes are a classic in the genre of “graveyard engineering”, as it is sometimes called. In October 2018, a brand-new aircraft, flown by Lion Air crashed into the sea killing 189 people, but nothing much more than the normal air crash investigation took place. However, within five months, when another new 737 Max airliner, belonging to Ethiopian Airlines, plunged into the ground killing another 157 people, it exposed many weaknesses and failures within aviation safety management. In contrast, in the aftermath of the second crash, the action was swift and decisive. All 737 Max aircraft were grounded by various aviation regulatory authorities across the globe.

The lessons of aviation safety are forced by circumstance to be learnt quickly and acted upon with due haste. It is a process that naturally purges the incompetents and foolish processes out of the system. On the other hand, road safety affords incompetence its most luxurious refuge.

Safety regulation is not intuitive. Aviation safety has learnt that human intuition has no place within the industry, yet it pervades in places and sometimes dominates. Humans will always make mistakes but many of these mistakes can be predicted, enabling measures to be put in place to prevent or lessen their consequences.

That is the fundamental false premise that the RSA is founded upon. The government simply plucked people out of nowhere using the false assumption that safety regulation is intuitive, and that no specialist expertise is required to guide strategy and policy.

Accordingly, the primary road safety strategy of the RSA is nannyism. Evidenced by the high frequency of condescending advertisements, scolding road users, as if they were bold children. When the number of fatalities rises, they simply increase the frequency of output hoping that it might brainwash road users into adopting safer behaviours.

One recent road accident resulting in multiple fatalities was reported to have occurred at a known accident blackspot. The elimination of accident blackspots should have been the first priority of the RSA when it was founded in 2006. These blackspots are places where the road engineering is deficient. Places where, in certain circumstances, even good conscientious drivers can have a crash. That is a major point, deficient road engineering is responsible for many accidents and deaths on Irish roads. It seems to be of little concern to the RSA, or any of the local authorities, or even the government at national level.

I recall one case where a driver shot through a crossroads and was T-boned by a car on the main road. He, along with his girlfriend and their toddler died. Within days, the locals reported that the junction was unrecognisable after the local authority carried out works. Prior to that, the signs warning of the junction ahead were obstructed with overgrown vegetation, while the white lines were worn off the road. The driver thought he was on the main road and had no warning that he was approaching a junction without priority. Galway County Council were entirely responsible for their deaths but was anyone held accountable?

Similar accidents continue to occur and many people have been wiped out at straight through crossroads. Not far from the scene of the aforementioned accident is Carnmore Cross. It was once known locally as “suicide cross”. It was a straight through crossroads on the main road from Galway City to Monivea. The junction layout cost many lives until the council decided to stagger the crossroads. Subsequently, drivers approaching from the non-priority ends had no vision of the road ahead and could not mistake it for a straight through road.

A stone’s throw away is the much newer Oranmore bypass, a dual carriageway where once again poor safety engineering caused the death of a woman. The cause of her death was due to the Armco steel barriers giving way, allowing the car to plunge over an embankment into a field. In Ireland these barriers are mere window-dressing, installed to masquerade as safety devices but will collapse when hit with a child’s pram travelling at 5kph. (See appendix)

Judging by the numerous editorials, especially after a spate of fatal road accidents, it seems that every newspaper editor considers himself/herself to be an expert in road safety. How many of these articles have laid the blame on local authorities for inadequate safety management. Is this the reason that local authorities get away with killing people? The focus is always on the incompetence of road users.

Think of all the commentary surrounding the death of Princes Dianna who died as a result of her car striking a pillar in the Pont de l’Alma tunnel in Paris. Did anyone complain that there were no crash barriers. Had the pillars been protected by a concrete crash barrier there is no doubt that the consequences of the accident would not have been as serious. The car would have bounce off it and may have bounced multiple times between two barriers on opposite sides of the road. Motorsport fans are well used to seeing cars bouncing off barriers in such a manner. Each meter travelled before coming to a halt, even upside-down, is causing the car to slow down and dissipate its energy before it finally stops. The13th pillar in the tunnel had the opposite effect, it concentrated the full energy into one sharp point, stopping the car in just over one metre. It resulted in a force of seventy times that of gravity (70g), being transferred brutally in milliseconds to the occupants of the car. To put that in perspective, a human heart weighs on average about 285g for a female and 290g for a male. That’s at 1g. Simply multiply the weight by the g-force number and a human heart will strike the rib cage with a force of 20 to 21kg.

In 2021, Max Verstappen collided with another car and left the track at 290kph/180mph at Silverstone. The onboard instruments measured the impact at 54g. Verstappen emerged shaken but unhurt, thanks to good safety engineering. All corners of the track have a safety run-off area made of tarmac that helps to decelerate the car, better than grass, even when spinning. When the tarmac runs out, a gravel pit followed to further slow a vehicle before it hit the final barrier. Even then, the barrier was cushioned with six layers of tyres held together by a conveyor belt. These types of incidents prove that even when accidents occur at massive high speeds, they are survivable when safety engineering is deployed. It should be noted that F1learned its safety lessons in the graveyard and it too was a slow learner at the start.

The causes of the Princess Dianna accident are well known, but there is no doubt that she died due the incompetence of the French Road Safety Observatory (ONISR).

The predecessor of the RSA was the National Roads Authority, and despite an outcry from motoring organisations, it continued and installed wire rope crash barriers on the central reservations of many dual carriageways. The wire rope barriers pose a significant threat to the safety of motorcyclists but also to other road users. The system is designed so that the supporting posts give way when struck by a vehicle. The steel ropes stretch to restrain vehicles from going more than a few meters over the barrier centre line. On many Irish carriageways the barriers are not installed in the middle of the central reservation but to one side. I have visions of a truck coming through the hedge, striking the rope barrier, and stretching it so that it reaches into the overtaking lane of the opposite carriageway, thus taking out some poor unfortunate motorist.

Most countries carry out tests on their road safety barriers and conduct research to find better ways to lessen the severity of impacts, but not Ireland. They stick any old yoke in the ground and call it a crash barrier. Most are installed incorrectly and while Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) has a document stipulating what engineering standards should apply and the forces that barriers must withstand when struck, it seems to be completely ignored by road engineers and managers. More insightfully, the document is lazily copied direct from Highways UK. [ii] In any case, TII standards only apply to national routes, thus leaving local authorities free to create much mayhem.

Some local authorities have appointed Road Safety Officers who are equally ineffective as the RSA. Yet nobody questions their failures, nor their qualifications for the job. Councils just seem to pluck a civil servant at random from one desk and sit them at another. One road safety officer commenting after a crash that killed a grandmother, a mother and her child at a notorious accident blackspot said, “many motorists still did not fully understand the danger of speeding”.[iii] His comments were not just disrespectful to all the families who had lost loved ones on that road, but it is beyond infuriating that local authorities can blame their continued failures on other people. If road safety officers were held accountable in court for all accidents at known accident blackspots in their region, there is no doubt there would be far less of them and the few remaining brave souls would work tirelessly to avoid ridicule.

All these abysmal failures like Hildegard Naughton’s recent road safety initiative are due to a single false assumption that we all make. It accounts for the huge number of newspaper articles written by those who think that they know it all, and they always blame speeding. However, the cause of all accidents is due to a single mistake or a series of mistakes (deliberate crashes aside). Not one article that I have read in the Irish media emphasises the situational factors that contribute to drivers making errors, nor does it appear to be on the radar of the RSA.

Finding the true causes of human mistakes is the only effective way to prevent future accidents.

Astonishingly but not surprisingly, given the composition of the RSA board, it is totally unaware of the science of “Human Performance (HP)”, and Human Factors (HF). This lack of knowledge gives rise to faulty investigations, concerned only with the attribution of blame to one party or another. As we will see, attribution error is the primary source of their failure.

It may sound like a fitness regime for professional athletes but Human Performance (HP) is the psychological study of how people perform various tasks. Human Factors (HF) is related to HP but is a separate sphere that emerged from many disciplines including psychology, anatomy, physiology, biomechanics, anthropometry, industrial design and engineering, industrial medicine, industrial hygiene, architecture, illumination engineering, interaction design, visual design, and user interface design. It is concerned with the application of what we know about human beings, their abilities, characteristics and limitations, to the design of equipment they use, environments in which they function and jobs they perform.

In the absence of HF, investigators almost always blame accidents on the persons driving or piloting. Scientific studies have shown that humans are inclined by nature to attribute blame for the failures of other people to an internal personal failing, ignoring all other external factors. For example, if a person had to close down their business, most of their friends would attribute the cause to their lack of business acumen, an internal failing.  If you were the person who was forced to close down your business, you would attribute its failure to the economy, competition etc. in other words, external reasons. Given any situation we often judge others harshly while letting ourselves off the hook. It is an entirely natural phenomenon that science considers this to be an error in the way human brains process information.

Consequently, the scientific method has developed strategies to combat the natural errors our brains make when processing information. One example is the issue of researcher bias. Scientific research has been bedevilled by bad reasoning for centuries. Many theories once considered to be incontrovertible facts are now on the scrap heap and long forgotten. However, researcher bias remains as powerful as it has ever been and continues to ruin the credibility of many studies and scientists.

Bad science is far more common than people realise and it is mainly the result of naturally occurring information processing errors made by our brains. Another one of these is called confirmation bias. It is the tendency to see only evidence that confirms our opinion and ignore any evidence that contradicts it. To reduce the harmful effects of this bias, scientific researchers are required to show that they have tested the null hypothesis. I know what you’re thinking, WTF! But it is not as complicated as it first seems.

Practically all scientific research studies set out to answer a question or a hypothesis. An example of a research hypothesis is does this vaccine prevent infections? Accordingly, the null hypothesis is then; this vaccine does not affect the infection rate. In other words, because we know that scientific researchers will ignore contradictory evidence, they are required to look for it, publish it, and explain why it can be rejected. Stated another way, scientists are forced by the system to at least look for evidence that might prove their opinions to be wrong.

OK, so far in this article I have been building up to a simplified introduction to the complex world of cognitive biases. You will find it very hard to believe that your brain can make so many errors in different situations. The first point to make is that they are not all bad. The second point is that the effects of these errors can be drastically reduced by using strategies like the ones mentioned above.

Fleishman and Pons are perhaps the most famous victims of cognitive bias in science. During their infamous experiment, the pair convinced themselves that they had observed a nuclear fusion reaction taking place at room temperature. Cold fusion is a massive game changer for science and with great excitement they published their findings. Many equally excited scientists all over the world replicated the cold fusion experiment but found the claimed results could not be replicated. The consequence was that two well respected scientists were the subject of ridicule thereafter. Like all other researchers, they subconsciously found what they had expected to find, even though it did not exist.

Cognitive biases make little difference to the lives of ordinary people. However, they can have a massive effect on their lives and wellbeing when they are allowed to ride unbridled and roughshod over the people by those in the professions along with those who govern us.

Appointing people who have no specialist skills or knowledge to positions within the domain of safety regulation might seem astonishing but it is an everyday occurrence. It happens because the ministers and government have no idea of the complexities involved. In the case of Ireland, the government simply took a celebrity broadcaster, Gay Byrne and made him the first chairman of the RSA. Byrne’s job was simply to act as a mudguard for the government. Every time road fatalities numbers surged, the mud thrown up landed on poor auld Gaybo, and not on the minister or the government. That has been the primary role of the authority ever since.

Gay had an element of luck on his side. Like a sales manager who appears to have star qualities in a rising market, his/her true abilities will only show in a declining market. Gay took over the helm of the RSA at a time of rising affluence, overflowing government coffers, and unprecedented investment into the upgrading of Ireland’s network of bad roads. Many new and safer roads were built, including motorways and dual carriageways that when combined with big improvements in car safety thanks to Euro NCAP, it led to a gradual decline in the fatality statistics. Other factors in the decline were a big decrease in the number of road journeys due to the financial crash and emigration to name just two. The number of people suffering injuries due to road accidents has remained stubbornly between eight and nine thousand per year. The stability of this statistic would suggest that vehicular safety improvements have yielded more survivable accidents. Therefore, if the number of accidents has remained the same, it is more likely that vehicular safety improvements account for the decline in the number of fatalities than the RSA strategy.

Like many state organisations the RSA operates in secret. Sure, they publish accident statistics but they are too general to allow for any scrutiny. Their intention is to hide from public view any information that has the power to reveal defects within policies, procedures, and operations. The net result is that incompetence has a revered and protected status in all Irish government bodies.

In marked contrast, all aviation accident reports are made public. The policy is based on one of the oldest and most natural principles of humanity, learning from the mistakes of others. It is not just pilots who make mistakes, it is everyone from aircraft designers, air traffic control, ground crew, maintenance crew to cabin crew, security personnel and all others.

The totality and the detail contained within aviation accident reports makes for heavy reading and is not for everyone. However, accident investigators make mistakes too and by forcing their reports into the public domain, it affords the public, along with industry experts, a chance to assess the quality of their work. More importantly, it forces investigators to wok to a high standard for fear of public ridicule and consequent reduction in attribution bias. That is the tendency for investigators to blame the pilots with little regard for the situation.

A safety organisation can only be effective if it is prepared to open its operations to public scrutiny and embrace criticism.

The aviation model is bar far the best accident prevention method currently available and every road safety organisation should follow its example.

Finally, we know, to err is human. It is not possible to change human nature. However, it is possible to change conditions that cause people to make errors and make error-recovery easier and with accidents, survivable.

Aloof nannyism is nothing more than a licence to kill.

EJ, is a former licenced motorsport safety officer, former licenced aircraft pilot, certified advanced driver and has spent his career working in safety critical environments.

 

Appendix & Refs

[i] The board of the Irish Road Safety Authority

[ii] Transport infrastructure Ireland specification document for crash barriers.

[iii] The N17, one of Ireland’s major roads is a total disgrace. This newspaper article from 2017 lists the deaths of 11 people in the previous two years. Many more have died since and yet no one has called on Mayo’s road safety officer to resign.

 

Ireland worst in Europe for Road Safety – European Commission

A bit of cop-on has come to NI

Victory in Northern Ireland: wire rope barriers will disappear

An animated reconstruction of Diana’s accident in Paris.

Verstappen Crash at Copse Corner 2021 View from the grandstand.

Lessons from the American space shuttle disasters

New York Times – “smart people working collectively can be dumber than the sum of their brains” Space Shuttle disaster. Article

Compared – Space Shuttles Challenger and Columbia Accidents

A partially collapsed crash barrier at Mincloon Cross in the Galway City after a low speed impact.

 

Patrick Christys – Half Irish, half educated, full union jackass

Bias and jingoistic bias is to be expected from the GB News channel, but racism is never acceptable. Patrick Christys’ anti-Irish comments calling the country a disgrace, singling out Ireland’s neutrality during WWII as a prime example, but it is also typical of British ignorance. Only a week or two before, another GB News presenter, also with Irish heritage, Mark Dolan, once again blew hard on Britania’s flute, ranting out the usual falsehoods about how great the British Empire once was, ignoring the death and the destruction it caused to millions of lives. He would never mention the brutality and oppression that ultimately caused many countries to fight wars of independence to get rid of British rule. Even the United Kingdom itself was broken apart after centuries of misrule, racism, and incompetence.

Patrick Christys’ Irish mother never explained to her son how the United Kingdom government attacked Ireland and its people during WWII, using hunger as its primary weapon. If the Irish government, in response, returned the favour and adopted a similar obstinate, coercive, and obstructive approach to Britain’s war effort, it would have been the most British thing it could have ever done. In stark contrast, the Irish government supported Britain’s war effort or, it was neutral but on the side of Britain. Unlike Spain, which was neutral on the side of Germany. Moreover, Spain is never attacked by British jingoes for its stance in WWII.

Christys made the comment while discussing the decision of the Irish government to bring a case against the British government to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) over its recently introduced amnesty law. The law deals with the legacy of the Northern Ireland Troubles, with the primary purpose to protect serving and former British soldiers, accused of crimes, from investigation, together with both criminal and civil legal actions. To achieve this end, they also had to give the same amnesty to all former combatants. Many families of the victims are distressed to learn that the murderers will never be held to account for the loss inflicted upon them. Consequently, and at the request of many of these families, the Irish government decided to act.

It comes at the same time as the British government is considering withdrawing or revoking the authority of the European Court of Human Rights over its failed migration policies.

The reality is that the British state stumbles for failure to fiasco but uses Grotesque Bullshit (GB) to hide the reality from its people. Brexit has been a disaster, but no one is allowed to mention the word in that context. Remember the Brexit Bus? It screamed, “We send the EU £350 million a week. Let’s fund our NHS instead”. Just, minutes before the start of Christys’ programme, the newsreader announced that the Welsh devolved government was to cut back on services and increasing taxes to fund its part of the National Health Service. Scotland is also to increase taxes for the same reason.

The £350 million slogan was a lie, typical Grotesque Bullshit (GB) designed to hoodwink people. It worked alongside blaming Europe and the Germans for decades of continuing British governmental failures.

In 2019, BBC news reported that the top five poorest regions in Europe were all in Britain. There is no other developed country that has so many people reliant on food banks to survive. The reality is that the country has become impoverished, and it is getting worse.

Britain is a wealthy country, but all the wealth is in the hands of the well off. Ten percent of the population of Britain (not the UK) own nearly half of all the country’s wealth, while one percent owns a quarter of the wealth. Consequently, the big picture statistics are skewed when all this wealth is divided up into overall per capita wealth. One has to look a bit harder to find that Britain has an astonishing 14.4 million people living in poverty. By any measure, that is failure.

Blaming the Irish, the Germans, the Jews, the French and the migrants for British failure is typical GB. Ultimately, however, it is the ordinary people in Britain who bear the brunt of governmental failure.

It would appear that the main aim of GB News is to keep people happy in their poverty. They create a false sense of superiority that in turn gives them the right to sneer at other nations.

Before Dan Wooton got the bullet from the Tonight show, he chose two people for awards each night. One for The Greatest Briton, the other its opposite, The Union Jackass. Christys has continued this tradition, but I assume that he cannot nominate himself.

The award for Union Jackass of the year goes to….

GB News was never intended to be an impartial news delivery outfit. It has a nationalist agenda and never misses an opportunity to pursue that agenda using the full toolbox of lies, lying by omission, half-truths, sensationalism, demagoguery and more. However, it has found an important niche, as it is not afraid to level much warranted criticism at other news outfits like the BBC. Its news service is truthful at times but also biased and tainted with Ghastly Bullshit and has become woke. GB News is more honest as it wears its bullshit on its sleeve.

EJ

More Reading…

“Britain would use hunger as a weapon of war against all” – Dr Bryce Evans is Associate Professor in History at Liverpool Hope University

Irish Legal Blog – The Emergency

GB News Tonight 20 Dec 2023

Wealth Inequality in the UK

Wales budget: Pubs and shops face tax hike to prop up NHS

Scottish Budget: Higher earners to pay more income tax

Why Do UK Tories Resent the European Court of Human Rights?

Dan Wootton sacked by MailOnline a day after GB News suspension

Number of Europe’s poorest regions in UK ‘more than doubles’

Northern Europe’s 5 poorest areas all are within Britain – BBC Newsnight May 8th, 2019

 

 

 

Childish Climate Change Behaviour

Climate change activism often involves individuals with a simplistic view of the world and a limited grasp of scientific principles. John Gibbons, an environmental journalist and commentator, serves as a notable illustration of this phenomenon through his behaviour on social media.

Recently, Mr. Gibbons penned an article for the Irish Examiner in response to the flooding events in Cork. The piece was accompanied by a photo capturing residents of Glanmire discarding flood-damaged furniture into a skip. This incident highlights not only the challenges faced by the community, but also the need for a more informed and nuanced discussion surrounding climate change.

Gibbons wasn’t the sole advocate leveraging the floods in Cork to advance a particular agenda. Social media saw a surge of individuals, spanning from Green politicians to climate alarmists, eager to portray the floods as conclusive evidence of climate change.

It’s worth noting that the name “Cork” is a deviation from the Irish term “Corcaigh,” meaning a marsh or swamp. This etymology underscores that the ancient city of Cork is situated in a swamp, standing at the river Lee’s lowest crossing point in the tidal region. Historical records reveal that Cork has faced recurrent flooding throughout the centuries, primarily due to its geographical placement. Consequently, the floods in Cork city cannot be attributed to climate change. Similarly, floods in other parts of Cork County stem from the positioning of towns and structures on floodplains. Take Middleton, for instance, where floods are entirely artificial, resulting from poor location choices, inadequate planning, subpar engineering, and impractical expectations.

Globally, substandard engineering ranks amongst the leading causes of urban flooding. Instances like the floods at the Dundrum Shopping Centre and Letterkenny Hospital underscore this point. In Dundrum, a seemingly inconspicuous stream was redirected into pipes, disregarding the fact that it had originally traversed a deep valley. When the stream swelled, it went unnoticed.

Engineers are tasked with sizing pipes based on the “once in one hundred years event” principle, or 0.1%. Simply put, the pipes should accommodate the most significant flow of water without obstruction. However, in practice, these calculations often rely on assumptions. In the case of the Dundrum Shopping Centre, shortly after its opening, heavy rain hit the Dublin mountains. The stream, following its natural course, swelled as usual. Unfortunately, the pipes, sized based on a mere guess, proved too small, leading to flooding.

A similar miscalculation occurred in Letterkenny, where the underestimated size of a culvert beneath a main road resulted in flooding at the hospital. Situated on the site of an ancient dam and corn mills, prone to flooding for centuries, the Letterkenny hospital experienced substantial damage in a 2013 flood, followed by a minor one a year later. The hospital’s bowl-like location at the bottom of a steep hill exacerbates its vulnerability to heavy rain.

Middleton in County Cork, located on a sea inlet with rivers to the west and south, has a history of flooding, especially after heavy rain. The name Owenacurra river is a transliteration of Abhain na Curragh meaning the river of the marsh. More ancient evidence that the town is situated in a swamp. Yet, amidst these events, no climate commentator highlighted the historical susceptibility of these areas to flooding, attributing the incidents solely to climate change. Meanwhile, some journalists resorted to sensationalism, prioritising emotional impact over factual reporting.

Nature, it seems, defies engineers. The belief that engineering can outsmart nature often clashes with reality. Examples include the overtopped tsunami wall in Ryoishi, Japan, and the 2012 flooding in St Asaph, Wales, due to breached flood defences, underscore the limitations of engineering based on false assumptions.

The most practical solutions, such as relocating settlements from floodplains or restoring floodplains to reduce flood severity, are often overlooked. These sensible approaches contrast with the antics of climate activists, as highlighted by the New York Post’s characterisation of them as “, ‘Climate activists? Ha! More like full-grown children seeking attention’.” Even in online interactions, like John Gibbons’ response to a tweet, a lack of professional decorum undermines constructive discourse.

The consequence of widespread fear often leads to regressive behaviour, ill-thought protests, and the perpetuation of baseless scare stories. The public, hungry for sensational narratives, becomes unwittingly misled by media seeking clicks. In the realm of science, the prevalence of researcher bias, where contradictory evidence is ignored, remains a significant challenge, hindering the objective evaluation of theories.

Climate change alarmism often stems from individuals lacking a comprehensive understanding of science, leading them to rely on others for their opinions. This reliance fosters a cycle where these individuals, unable to substantiate their views with evidence, resort to immature name-calling—labelling dissenters as climate deniers or morons.

In a realisation of his own imprudence, Gibbons eventually deleted his responses and pre-emptively blocked any further comments from me, all captured in incriminating screenshots.

Despite adopting the username @think_or_swim, his actions suggest a deficiency in critical thinking and a penchant for scaremongering. It appears inevitable that he will soon find himself swimming in the submerged streets of Cork. The same streets that were once canals, now filled-in by human intervention, but reclaimed by nature at her discretion. This serves as a poignant reminder of human folly that nature persistently exposes.

 

Featured image montage. Photo of a climate protestor who glued her breasts to the street. John Gibbons. Flooding in Cork City in 1959. A quote from Richard Lindzen, a Harvard-educated American atmospheric physicist who has published more than 200 scientific papers and books.

EJ

Some References…

Gibbon’s article in Irish Examiner

Flood-hit hospital was built on site of ancient dam

Anger as floods hit hospital a year after €40m catastrophe

Welsh river spills over flood defences

Shocking footage of extreme flooding across Cork as experts warn ‘it will get worse’

Climate activists? Ha! More like full-grown children seeking attention

Halfwit’s Misadventures: The Chronicles of Comical Cluelessness

Some people make a rock look like a genius but wear the armour of anonymity to avoid exceeding their quota of real-world ridicule. I see one such numpty on an online forum calling me a crackpot and a looney! He/she has decided to critique one of my articles to give to the online world the benefit of their massive intellect. They point out that the claims made by me are of a crackpot variety. Yes, indeed they are, in that article, and deliberately so.

 “Satire often reveals the absurdity of the world, but when people miss the joke, they become part of the comedy.” – G.K. Chesterton

 

Writing that article, I used a rhetorical technique where an argument or a proposition is intentionally taken to an extreme and absurd conclusion to highlight the flaws, contradictions, or absurdities within the argument or proposition. It’s often used to demonstrate the illogical or undesirable consequences of a particular line of reasoning, making a point by showing how impractical or absurd the argument becomes when taken to its logical extreme.

Our intrepid forum poster, called Jank, took aim at my various absurdities and presented them as quotes to impress his audience with his vast intellectual abilities, blowing all my flapdoodles out of the water.

In the real-world, statistics are notoriously hard to interpret, and bad statistical interpretation dominates our world, particularly in the media, causing people to be misled. That is the purpose of the article, to put a crackpot analysis on such information to highlight the problem.

Accordingly, the mortality statistics for Rahoon Parish in Galway were much higher than the national average for over a century. Why? Because there is a major hospital in the parish. It is an acute hospital, a place where lots of people die! The mortality statistics for the parish are therefore biased/skewed, but if we interpret high mortality rates in the manner of most journalists, we get crackpot conclusions.

Knock, knock… who’s there? ’Tis a crackpot who mistakes a satirical crackpot interpretation for a genuine factual reportage!

Jank, in his genius, quotes the article’s conclusion…

The moral of the story! It is easy to draw excitable conclusions from statistics, but the scurrilous misinformation emitted by bluffers and fluffers dominates due to poor educational standards in Ireland. Evident throughout the system, from its universities right down to its kindergarten schools.

 

His/her comments on my final paragraph demonstrate beyond all doubt that the real person behind the Jank was born during low tide in the gene pool.

In an act of spectacular stupidity, Jank writes, “whatever that report was about. (I am still not sure)”. Yet the name of the report by the commission of investigation into mother and baby homes is clearly stated in black and white!

All the signs of reductio ad absurdum are there, and it is clearly stated the article is about the “hospital effect” in statistics. All the simple clues were missed by poor auld Jank!

Yep, the online world is full of halfwits like Jank.

“The moment you take satire at face value, you’re in danger of losing your own.” – Jon Oliver

 

You can read Jank’s deranged critique here

 

EJ

 

 

 

 

Top 5 Falsehoods of Irish History which Everyone Believes are Facts

The Irish nation is particularly prone to believing in historical myths. Falsehoods appear with such frequency in the country’s media and are never subjected to critical analysis that the stand as evidence of the nation’s cultural biases. Historical fallacies are mainly a product of political interference in the education curriculum, where important evidence has been omitted. Are you curious to see what happens to your opinion when these facts are returned?

 

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Letter to United Nations re the Irish Council for Civil Liberties

Dear Mr Salvioli, When miscarriages of justice occurred in Ireland, the Irish Council for Civil Liberties was strangely silent. Contrast their behaviour to the achievements of the National Council for Civil Liberties, now called ‘Liberty’, in Britain, which has been instrumental in exposing miscarriages of justice and in the release of innocent people from jail. On the other hand, the Irish Council for Civil Liberties (ICCL) has little work to do in Ireland and so has taken to fighting with the dead, a behaviour common in Ireland due to the nation’s cultural biases and often expressed as a national self-loathing. The actions of the ICCL border on sectarian prejudice and are nearly always exclusively aimed at the catholic church. However, the most disturbing actions of the ICCL are their arguments calling for the fundamental principle of justice and human rights to be set aside.

Recently the commission of investigation into mother and baby homes has found that many of the allegations made by and/or endorsed by the ICCL were not supported by evidence.[1] A major embarrassment one would think, but the ICCL has attempted a counterattack by writing whimperingly to you at the United Nations. Their chief weapon is the anachronistic application of human rights law to the past, a time when no such rights were protected by law. An action akin to banning cars from a city centre, and then accusing drivers who drove on those streets before the ban of breaking the law and seeking to fine them or have them arrested.

The mother and baby homes scandals are primarily founded upon the issue of historical high infant mortality rates, thus bringing into play the investigative tools of science and mathematics, tools not normally available to historians. That is specialist historians with knowledge, or at least a basic understanding of pathology, aetiology and epidemiology.

These are subjects not normally taught to historians and lawyers, yet the Irish government appointed such ill-equipped people to investigate the causes of historical high infant mortality rates. When knowledge is absent, assumptions are imperative to fill in the gaps, thus facilitating the arrival at conclusions that would be otherwise impossible.

The size of the assumption is directly proportional to the size of the knowledge gap. Accordingly, the bigger the assumption the greater the distance it is in essence from reality. Consequently, the commission has made several substantial mistakes which all fall on one side in favour of the abuse hypothesis, the same side as the ICCL. However, these errors are easily exposed using current scientific understandings.

The lawyers and the personnel at the ICCL have demonstrated time and again that they have no such specialist knowledge of vintage medicine or science and are forced to base their arguments and allegations entirely on assumptions. However, in their specialist area of law, they also astonishingly wander away from the principles of good justice.

They argue for a ‘survivor-led approach’ to the evidence, effectively urging the government and observers to dismiss evidence, and accept all allegations as fact without the slightest test for credibility. The fundamental principle of justice is that allegations can only be proven if they are supported by evidence. All allegations must therefore be tested for credibility. Many of the allegations made by the ICCL and others are reliant on historical and logical fallacies, and on ‘hearsay’, a legal term, which is tightly controlled in a court setting using the rules of evidence, because of its potential to cause injustice. Moreover, the ICCL seeks to deny the accused of their rights which are guaranteed by the Irish constitution, namely, ‘equality before the law’ and ‘the right to fair procedures’.

During a previous Irish government enquiry, when scientific tools were available to subject witnesses’ allegations to impartial credibility tests, one-third of applicants were found to have provided false testimony.[2] The commission of investigation into mother and baby homes has also encountered false testimony but has failed to publicly quantify its extent. The number of such testimonies is likely to be substantial in number, judging from the many accounts appearing in the Irish media, which rely on pushing credulity to heights never before seen. Given that there are huge sums of money on offer as compensation, it is no surprise to find a lot of people are willing to chance their luck, as there is a lot to be gained and little to be lost. As in other cases, many of the accusers work on the premise that the more exaggerated their allegations, the more they will be paid in compensation. In effect, Ireland’s legal system has a long record of rewarding dishonesty, often at the expense of genuine cases made by honest persons.

Unlike its neighbouring countries, Ireland has a compensation culture that is so pervasive and the awards so high, that the country’s insurance costs are astronomical. It has become so problematic for society, that the government has recently gotten the Irish judiciary to agree to new guidelines to reduce the amount given in financial settlement of personal injury claims.[3]

Nonetheless, the courts are full of compensations claims with a not insubstantial number of cases based on allegations that range from the mistaken to the fraudulent. There is little to mitigate against such claims, as judges are inclined to give the benefit of any doubt to the plaintiff and law firms are more than willing to advertise their services on a ‘no win, no fee basis’. The substantial financial sums on offer produces a level of temptation for people which not only outweighs or blinds them to the potential losses, through the awarding of costs against them, but it encourages a substantially higher number of people to take a chance. After all, if Johnny and Mary down the road could get €150,000 and appear to be perfectly okay after their accident, why can’t we get my hands on easy money.

Despite the allure of vast sums in compensation, many people who are former residents of mother and baby homes have testified to the commission about the many good aspects of the homes and of their good treatment. Their voices have not been heard over the cacophony of the wild and the lurid claims, which are the only type appearing almost daily in the Irish media.

Allegations like those discussed at the Irish houses of parliament where several parliamentarians stated unequivocally that women starved babies to death. First, it was alleged to have occurred at the Protestant run Bethany home and later applied to all Catholic-run homes. All allegations were reliant on an ignorant and inept interpretation of the medical term ‘marasmus’, which appeared on a small number of death certificates.

Death due to this exact cause occurred at all of the nation’s maternity hospitals in the past. Accordingly, it would be an imperative of justice that a commission of investigation be established to bring to bear scrutiny on these hospitals and also on the Irish Medical Council and on An Bord Altranais, respectively, the regulatory bodies for doctors and nurses.

If the same evidence that is used to accuse women of murder and abuse can be found at all maternity hospitals, then the singling out of Christian run institutions would in itself be a cause for concern. One would reasonably expect an organisation like the ICCL would be at the forefront in sounding the alarm about the potential for injustice and the breach of the human rights of the accused.

The ICCL citing the commission’s final report wrote that ‘babies and young children were reported to have died from malnutrition, a form of neglect.’ The Commission state:

33.5. Some commentators have concluded that infant deaths which occurred in mother and baby homes due to marasmus indicates that infants were neglected, not appropriately cared for, and/or wilfully starved to death in these institutions.

However, marasmus was a frequently cited cause of infant deaths in institutional, hospital and community settings in early twentieth-century Ireland. The Commission considers it unlikely that deaths in hospitals and family homes were due to wilful neglect and so cannot conclude that the term marasmus denotes wilful neglect in mother and baby homes. The more likely explanation is that marasmus as a cause of death was cited when an infant failed to thrive due to malabsorption of essential nutrients due to an underlying, undiagnosed medical condition.

Accordingly, this lack of balance is strong evidence that the ICCL has not the skillset to investigate matters historical not to mind matters medical, but more importantly, it demonstrates that they have no commitment to ensuring justice prevails. What about the justice for those who were falsely accused of murder, they may be dead now, but what kind of ‘rights advocacy’ organisation thrives on, and promotes injustice?

The ICCL’s arguments under the following headings are equally not supported by the evidence and were mostly dismissed by the commission of investigation.

· Arbitrary Detention · Violations of the Right to Life
· Torture and Ill Treatment · Modern slavery or servitude or forced labour
· Enforced Disappearance · Violation of Private and Family Life Discrimination

It might seem obvious to state, but the allegations made by the ICCL have been subjected to a seven-year-long investigation by a government-appointed commission, which after examining one million documents found no evidence to support most of their allegations. Consequently, the ICCL might see it as a survival imperative and to maintain their credibility have to seek to rubbish the commission’s findings. A more competent organisation might admit its mistakes and concentrate on the commission’s findings which may be close to matching their allegations, but such aptitude is hard to find in Ireland.

The Irish nation has a remark for the intellectual failings of the Irish elite which goes ‘only in Ireland’. Only in Ireland could there be a ‘human rights organisation advocating for actions which run contrary to the principles of justice, do so in the name of justice, and get away with it. The ICCL would be better renamed the Irish Council for Civil Loathing because that is their modus operandi. They, like many of their compatriots, are prisoners of cultural artefacts inherited from their impoverished ancestors, who were so deprived of social advancement, took to the denigration of others to create illusions of social superiority.

Denigration combined with the ‘colonial mentality’ has left the Irish nation with a set of self-loathing biases, which the Irish often pass off as self-deprecating humour. However, one has only to look at its malignant influences to see the real-world consequences for the nation.

No politician has to date, apologised for making false allegations of starvation against the women who managed and worked in the mother and baby homes. Not one.

Like the ICCL, many of the scandal propagating politicians have posited further scurrilous claims and continue to do so even after they were dismissed by the commission of investigation. The reason for their actions is simple, self-loathing, it is important to a large portion of the Irish nation, who use it to create illusions of social superiority and are naturally reluctant to have their notions of self-worth destroyed by evidence. Accordingly, they will support anyone who advances their prejudices and ignore those who might challenge them.

The ICCL uses presentism with alacrity to promote its agenda. Presentism is the anachronistic use of present-day perspectives to analyse past events. It usually results in the castigation of the past’s decision-makers who made wrong decisions because of not using information that belonged to their future.

The supreme irony of using presentism is that the former residents who were born or raised in institutions were the result of a crisis pregnancy and in this age, it is likely they would have been killed before their birth. Irish women produced a minimum of 181,434 unwanted children in the thirty-five-year period between 1982 and 2017 inclusive. The figure includes 15,094 children who were given up for adoption.[4]

In a corresponding thirty-five-year period, while the Tuam mother and baby home was open from 1925 to 60, Irish women produced 64,290 illegitimate children and 13,431 of these souls were lost due mainly to rampant levels of dire poverty.[5]

The number of births in both periods was remarkably similar 2,199,777 compared to 2,187,967 for the later period. Compare the sad loss of 13,431 infants to the 166,340 children who were aborted before birth and we can begin to see what period of history the baby holocaust belongs to.[6]

It is a mark of insanity to suggest that all the illegitimate children born in the early period were wanted by their mothers. It is a sad fact of life that many babies were unwanted by their mothers then and now. Witness accounts, within the commission’s report, stand as testimony to the efforts made by several mothers who self-harmed in order to cause the loss of their baby.

Moreover, when these children grew up and went in search of their birth mother, it would be the height of insensitivity to reveal to such a person that they were in reality, an unwanted child. Accordingly, and with compassionate intent, they are told that they were a wanted child, but nefarious forces made the mother give them away. It is a story that saves face for the mother and provides comfort for the abandoned child, but it is not necessarily a true version of events, no matter how much people want to believe it.

The issue of unwanted children remains very much with society today, only the method of dealing with the issue has changed. Throughout recorded history, humanity has created vast numbers of unwanted children and it continues to create such children today. Alas, thanks to an unlucky technicality, human rights lawyers are deprived of much business, due to the now commonly accepted precept that human rights only begin when a child makes it out alive from its mother’s womb. If those who are not that fortunate are counted as unwanted children, then it puts a more rational perspective on history.

All societies where poverty is high have higher mortality rates than more affluent societies. Infant mortality rates have been correlated with poverty for decades but only in the last three decades has the causal relationship been definitively established. The United Nations are very well aware of the influence of poverty on mortality rates and appears in what must be thousands of official publications and through its agencies like the World Health Organisation and UNICEF, which estimates that:

On current trends, that 56 million children under age 5 will die from 2018 to 2030, half of them newborns. […] while children from poorer households in low-and-middle-income countries remain disproportionately vulnerable to early death – under-five mortality rates are, on average, twice as high for the poorest households compared to the richest.[7]

How can the United Nations not be able to join the dots with its own information and think it can have any semblance of credibility? The Irish nation was once a deeply impoverished society with high infant mortality rates which were directly correlated to the levels of poverty. The commission has noted that infant mortality rates at their highest during the 1930s and 1940s.

The 1930s was a time of great social deprivation across the globe. ‘Hunger marches’ took place in the richest country in the world, Britain, where tens of thousands of people took to the streets to protest against their living conditions. In the 1940s, Ireland was hit by a supply crisis which caused food shortages and hit the country’s poorest people the hardest. The catholic church in Dublin provided the city’s poor people with 8 million meals per year, saving tens of thousands of lives.[8] Yet, they get no credit thanks to Irish ignorance of their own history.

In anticipation of any argument put forward to the contrary by a devotee of the ‘dismal science’, let me point out that GDP per capita is no measure of individual well-being, just ask Joseph Stiglitz et al, but is often used by the self-loathers to insinuate that things were not that bad in Ireland.

However, when wealth distribution is factored in, the true picture reveals itself. In 1931 a staggering 81% of the population of Ireland had no measurable wealth. 1% of the population controlled 59% of the nation’s wealth. The legacy of colonial rule did not disappear overnight. Post-independence, Britain placed a financial burden on the Irish nation which was greater than those imposed on the Germans due to the war reparations post WWI. These payments were known as the ‘land annuity’ and ‘RIC pensions’. In 1932 the Irish government attempted to halt the British financial drain of the Irish economy by withholding the land annuity payment. At that time, they amounted to a staggering 14% (£4,764,767) of the nation’s total tax income of £35.5million.[9]

Britain retaliated by placing tariffs on Irish goods, a time now known as the ‘Economic War’. It placed great hardship on the Irish population and in particular on the poor and infant mortality rates remained high. In 1938 the trade war ended with the Irish government paying out £10 million in a final settlement. However, only a few years later, the British again carried out an economic attack on Ireland, through the withdrawal of vital supplies, in reprisal for the country refusing Churchill’s invitation to join the war on the side of Britain.[10] As a former colony, the Irish economy was left heavily dependent on exports and imports from its former colonial masters. The British Historian Bryce Evans puts it more dirrectly writing that Britain used ‘hunger as a weapon of war’ against Ireland during the 1940s.[11]

There is absolutely no question that poverty was rampant in Ireland and that government efforts to solve it were hampered by external forces and events. There is equally no doubt that poverty was the main cause of high infant mortality rates. It is however ignored in the commission of investigation’s report due to ignorance, despite the issue jumping out from its pages.

Returning to the ICCL, Michael Feichín Hannon was convicted in 1997 on charges of sexual assault had his conviction was declared a miscarriage of justice on the 27 April 2009. The three-judge court, in granting the certificate, described the case as ‘alarming and disturbing’ and said an entirely innocent man was convicted by a jury. His accuser, a young girl, had found God as an adult and as a result, admitted to making up the whole story.[12]

In 1999, Nora Wall became the first woman to be convicted of rape in the history of the Irish state. She was also the first person (male or female) ever to receive a life sentence for rape. The rape occurred 20 years earlier at a time when she was working as a nun at an orphanage. She held open the legs of a twelve-year-old girl in her care, to facilitate her rape by a male employee of the same orphanage. It turned out to be Ireland’s first case of a conviction based on repressed memories, an entirely concocted story, made by a woman with mental difficulties. Nora Wall was released from prison after serving only four days of her life sentence. It was the fortunate result of evidence emerging into the public domain, which should have been kept hidden from public view, as stipulated by Irish law. Her conviction was certified as a miscarriage of justice in 2005.[13]

In both cases the ICCL, founded in 1976, was silent. It made no comments on what improvements might be made to the rules of evidence and/or to court procedures to protect innocent people from false accusations and propose strategies that would make such miscarriages of justice less likely to happen again in the future.

In the parlance of the UN, there is no evidence that as a result of these miscarriages of justice that the ICCL has advocated or campaigned to:

  • Prevent the recurrence of crises and future violations of human rights.
  • Promote truth and memory about past violations;
  • Reform the national institutional and legal framework and promote the rule of law in accordance with international human rights law, and restore confidence in the institutions of the State;
  • Ensure social cohesion, nation-building, ownership and inclusiveness at the national and local levels; and promote healing and reconciliation;

The ICCL not only does not live up to these ideals but has actively promoted untruths and unlike the women it attacked, or the organisation to which they belonged, it seems that they have never protected a single human right nor prevented the abuse of any person’s rights.

The ICCL press briefing on the report of the Mother and Baby Homes Commission dated March 2021, is chiefly remarkable for its reiteration, as fact, all the allegations which have been disproven or found not to be supported by the evidence by the commission of investigation. [14]

Just take one exemplar, the ICCL state emphatically that women were detained against their will, yet in reality, women had to apply to get into a mother and baby home. Taking my earlier point about stretching credulity, think about how many people are currently standing outside Mountjoy Jail in Dublin applying to get it.

Human rights lawyers cannot in reason or logic base their opinions on false allegations nor can false or dubious allegations be used to attack innocent people, dead or alive. Such would be representative of a significant failure in the intellectual tradition of humanity.

Dubious allegations might be easily revealed when they bear all the hallmarks of misogyny, it was women who starved babies to death, women who abused children, women who abused mothers, women who trafficked babies, women who kidnapped women, women covered up abuse, women perpetrated a holocaust against babies, ad inf.

One simple question exposes the falsity of the allegations, what benefit would accrue to these women for their actions and what would outweigh the risks. Risks like their imprisonment, castigation, dismissal and excommunication. When rational investigative questions are asked, the road to the truth begins to thaw out and the myths unravel, but why have these questions not been asked by the Irish media, the ICCL and more importantly, by the United Nations.

Irish universities have been engaged in ‘grade inflation’ for the last number of decades. That is the practice of making exams easier for students to gain higher marks, thus creating the illusion of improving standards of education. It works to fool politicians, but the multinational corporations based in Ireland are not impressed with the Irish educational system and have made their dissatisfaction known directly to the Irish government. The top executives of Google, Hewlett-Packard and Intel met with the Minister of Education, Bat O’Keefe in 2012. He was told that Irish graduates do not have the level of skill their qualifications suggest.[15] Despite promises, no corrective action appears to have been taken to date. In recent weeks the OECD has also castigated the Irish education system. Dr Andreas Schleicher stated:

Just 15 per cent of Irish 15-year-olds can distinguish fact from opinion in a reliable way. So, you know, what value is literacy, if you can’t navigate ambiguity? If we can’t manage complexity? [16]

As the output of ICCL seems to evince the same inability that afflicts young adults, it would not be unreasonable to suggest that problems unique to the Irish education system, could be a contributing factor in the apparent lack of skills and abilities at the ICCL.

Natural justice demands that the United Nations should at least subject allegations to a test for veracity rather than gullibly accepting the word of accusers, including that of self-appointed watchdogs. Notoriety seeking is prevalent among individuals today and it, along with groupthink can occur in any organisation or social group, and each malady has the potential to be one of the progenitors of injustice and human rights abuse. These malignant effects always need to be mitigated through competent evaluation of BOTH sides, especially the contrarian viewpoint which should always be sought out and given a fair hearing. Leave the one-sided arguments to the Irish, and let them engage in their time-honoured pastime of self-loathing, and not drag the United Nations down to their level.

The commission of investigation into mother and baby homes was led by a judge, a barrister and a historian. They were not wrong in all their findings, but their reports contain many errors due to inadequate controls for cultural biases, cognitive biases and a lack of expertise in statistics and medicine. Many of its conclusions will not withstand rational investigation as they are riddled with presentism, statistical fallacies and prejudice.

The Irish nation is badly served by its élite, so we would all welcome a UN investigation, but only if carried out by people with a strong commitment to impartiality, empowered with strategies to control for prejudice, cognitive bias, and has expertise in history, science, historic medicine, statistics and placing historic events in their correct historical context. On request, I can supply comprehensive details of what the commission got wrong and what it got right.

The Christian churches, supported by the Christian community, has been in the business of saving the lives of unwanted children for nearly two millennia. For all of that time, not one institution has been accused of operating a baby-killing facility or a post-natal life abortion service. Such flights of imagination can happen… only in Ireland.

It is time to wake up and smell the manure.

Finally, I provide more detail on all the arguments I used here in my new book and e-book.

The book’s epigraph is a quote by Albert Einstein:

‘Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.’

Einstein did not have the ICCL in mind, but he provides a good explanation of what might underpin their thoughts and actions.

Eugene Jordan, BA BSc MinfoTech,
Science historian.

 

References

[1] Commission of Investigation, ‘Mother and Baby Homes Commission of Investigation Final Report’.

[2] Broadsheet, ‘Confabulation, False Memories And Conspiracy Theories’.

[3] Correspondent, ‘New Guidelines on Personal Injury Awards to Take Effect “within Weeks”’.

[4] Jordan, The Irish Attack on Christianity.

[5] Ibid.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Hug et al., ‘Levels & Trends in Child Mortality’.

[8] Bryan, ‘Rationing in Emergency Ireland, 1939-48’.

[9] Jordan, The Irish Attack on Christianity.

[10] Evans, ‘What Ireland Ate and Drank during the Second World War’.

[11] Ibid.

[12] ‘Sex Attack Case Ruled a Miscarriage’.

[13] Carolan, ‘Ex-Nun Nora Wall Settles Damages Case for Miscarriage of Justice’.

[14] ‘ICCL Press Briefing on Report of the Mother and Baby Homes Commission’.

[15] Flynn, ‘How Ireland Dumbed Down’.

[16] O’Brien, ‘Irish Schools Need to Modernise “20th Century” Approach to Learning, Warns OECD’.

 

Full References

Broadsheet. ‘Confabulation, False Memories And Conspiracy Theories’. Broadsheet.ie, 23 November 2016. https://www.broadsheet.ie/2016/11/23/confabulation-false-memories-and-conspiracy-theories/.

Bryan, Ciarán. ‘Rationing in Emergency Ireland, 1939-48’. National University of Ireland Maynooth, 2014.

Carolan, Mary. ‘Ex-Nun Nora Wall Settles Damages Case for Miscarriage of Justice’. The Irish Times. Accessed 26 July 2018. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/courts/high-court/ex-nun-nora-wall-settles-damages-case-for-miscarriage-of-justice-1.2645707.

Commission of Investigation. ‘Mother and Baby Homes Commission of Investigation Final Report’. Irish Government, 30 October 2020.

Correspondent, Jennifer. ‘New Guidelines on Personal Injury Awards to Take Effect “within Weeks”’. The Irish Times, 9 March 2021. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/new-guidelines-on-personal-injury-awards-to-take-effect-within-weeks-1.4504682.

Evans, Bryce. ‘What Ireland Ate and Drank during the Second World War’. Brainstorm – RTÉ, 25 May 2020. https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0525/1140447-ireland-emergency-second-world-war-food-drink-black-loaf-tea/.

Flynn, Sean. ‘How Ireland Dumbed Down’. The Irish Times. 6 March 2010. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/how-ireland-dumbed-down-1.633741.

Hug, Lucia, David Sharrow, Kai Zhong, and Danzhen You. ‘Levels & Trends in Child Mortality’. New York: UNICEF, 2018.

‘ICCL Press Briefing on Report of the Mother and Baby Homes Commission’. Irish Council for Civil Liberties, March 2021. https://www.iccl.ie/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Press-briefing-ICCL-analysis-of-MBHC-report.pdf.

Jordan, Eugene. The Irish Attack on Christianity – The Case for the Defence. Tafannóir Press, 2021.

O’Brien, Carl. ‘Irish Schools Need to Modernise “20th Century” Approach to Learning, Warns OECD’. The Irish Times. 22 March 2021. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/irish-schools-need-to-modernise-20th-century-approach-to-learning-warns-oecd-1.4516222.

‘Sex Attack Case Ruled a Miscarriage’. The Irish Times. 27 April 2009. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/sex-attack-case-ruled-a-miscarriage-1.839613.

 

The Perverse Morality of Micheál Martin – Taoiseach sneers at his mother.

During the second decade of the twenty-first century, under the rule of the Taoiseach/Prime minister Micheál Martin, children born to a cohort of mothers suffer from infant mortality rates that are multiples that of the average. High infant mortality rates present in a previous era of Irish history were referred to by the Taoiseach as ‘disquieting’, and he went on to attack the apparent lack of action on behalf of the authorities, labelling it ‘distressing’. Yet, the same statistics and apparent inaction are very much in evidence during his tenure as the nation’s leader. As we will see, it would be an example of gross hypocrisy if it was not for the presence of ignorance. The Taoiseach was given his opinion by the commission of investigation into mother and baby homes. It appears that the commission thought that they had sufficient expertise in the areas of vintage medicine, pathology and medical statistics that they did not need to consult with experts in such fields. Accordingly, the commission used assumptions in places where it could have used evidence and consequently arrived at wildly inaccurate conclusions. On top of these assumptions, the Taoiseach used his own assumptions and used them to accuse his mother and grandmother; he said they ‘embraced a perverse religious morality and control, judgementalism and moral certainty’. They ‘had a completely warped attitude to sexuality and intimacy, and young mothers’. There you have it; the entire Martin family were sneering at unmarried mothers and oppressed women and children. The Irish view their own history and society through cowhight tinted glasses, accordingly Micheál Martin was not able to see the contemptuousness he holds for his own family, because in Irish society, one can sneer at everyone else and not think that such sneers apply to oneself nor to one’s kin.

In societies where the intellectual tradition is not dead, there is a commitment to the scientific study of problems to improve the conditions for its citizens and humanity. In countries like the UK and Sweden, researchers continue to study high infant mortality rates and look for causes. Even today, the evidence shows that the infant mortality rates for children born to unmarried mothers are significantly higher than for children born to married parents. Ireland does not measure or at least does not publish such statistics, but if they were ever made public, they would likely show the same problem exists in Irish society.

The Taoiseach can quite happily rule over a nation where the infant mortality rate for traveller children is over three and a half times that of the average. It is likely that the English rates of 40% greater infant mortality for children of unmarried mothers also applies to Ireland, then our Taoiseach is gravely in error to attack the dead when he is in no position to grasp the significance of the statistics lying on his own desk.

Erudite research, both scientific and social, continues to show that the causes of high infant mortality rates and high mortality rates, in general, are due to deprivation and poverty. The commission of investigation was unaware of this present-day research and so used the assumption that high infant mortality rates were due almost entirely to the spread of disease. They took no account of that the use of the word ‘congenital’ on deaths certificates which meant that a disease or a condition was present at birth. Consequently, they assumed that deaths were due to overcrowding and cots too close together. They might not have reached such conclusions if they visited the nursery in a modern maternity hospital and observed the current practices with cots close together. The commission also tells us that Tuam was never overcrowded, yet the home’s high infant mortality rates triggered the whole scandal.

No competent statistician would draw inferences from crude statistics like the Irish mother and baby homes commission has done. It has long been known that hospitals that deal with high-risk individuals have higher mortality rates. An example would be the recent media reports that several of Ireland’s biggest hospitals had high mortality rates for different conditions. In 2017, the National Audit of Hospital Mortality (NAHM) found a higher mortality rate was recorded at Cork University Hospital (CUH) for ischaemic stroke than anywhere else in the country. At first glance, it might appear that if you were suffering from a stroke, CUH is the last place you would want to be. It is natural to equate high mortality statistics with poor quality care, but such an inference cannot be made from basic statistics. All statisticians and data scientists are taught how to avoid the logical fallacy of ‘false causes’ from the very beginning. Essentially, in this case, it means that one cannot use high infant mortality rates to imply poor quality health care without looking for other causes.

CUH has a specialist stroke unit, and so patients are sent to it from other hospitals and directly from the community, avoiding other hospitals. Consequently, CUH has many more patients at risk of dying from a stroke than any other hospital. That is why it has a higher mortality rate, not because the patients received poor quality treatment. A hospice is a hospital with mortality rates of close to 100 per cent. Hospitals offering palliative care have high mortality statistics than those with none. What can be inferred from these ‘appalling mortality rates?

Crude statistics are so useless an indicator that statisticians have tried to effect improvements by factoring in differences in the population and their risk of death. These called standardised mortality ratios (SMR), and ones designed explicitly for hospitals, are Hospital Standardised Mortality Ratio (HSMR). The intention is to try and spot hospitals where the treatments could be improved.

In a scandal that bore many striking similarities to the Irish mother and baby homes scandal, high HSMRs were spotted at the UK’s Stafford Hospital, Staffordshire, in 2009. ‘The regulator condemned “appalling” standards of care and reported there had been at least 400 more deaths than expected between 2005 and 2008.’ Patients came out of the woodwork and claimed that they had been mistreated. An enquiry was set up, ‘it heard accounts of almost unimaginable neglect – with patients left in soiled sheets, others crying out in pain and some so dehydrated they drank from flower vases.’ The team went through more than one million pages of evidence. In his report, published in February 2013, Sir Robert found there were failings from the top to the bottom of the NHS, commenting, ‘this is a story of appalling and unnecessary suffering of hundreds of people. They were failed by a system which ignored the warning signs and put corporate self-interest and cost control ahead of patients and their safety.’[1]

The British prime minister issued an apology on behalf of the government.

The whole sordid affair has been the subject of debate within science ever since. It turns out that the scientists are sure that conditions at Stafford Hospital were no worse than at other hospitals and that the statistics were pretty useless. One team of researchers stated:

Using the HSMR [hospital standardised mortality ratios] to identify ‘good/bad’ hospitals is analogous to the practice of dowsing—the search for water without scientific apparatus—it is time to abandon this screening test and search for a better one.[2]

If the standardised statistics we use today are deficient, then the reliance on raw statistics of the past to imply causes is amateurishly inept.

The evidence is clear; the commission of investigation and many mother and baby home commentators have no expertise in statistics, medical statistics, epidemiology, nursing care or in vintage medicine. Yet they take it upon themselves to make pronouncements which no expert could make.

The leader of the Irish nation, Micheál Martin, has not got the time, expertise, or the wit to know anything about statistics. Like many others, he launched a scathing and scurrilous attack on his own people based on no more than an ignorant and inept interpretation of the evidence.

Michael Martin used the word ‘we’ to include my family and relations in his outburst. I say sneer at your own family before you sneer at others. See if they like it. Open your eyes to the high infant mortality rates under your own nose, and then accuse yourself of a ‘perverse morality’ and of being ‘distressingly’ indifferent to the plight of these children.

EJ

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-50836324

[2] Mohammed, M. A., R. Lilford, G. Rudge, R. Holder, and A. Stevens. ‘The Findings of the Mid-Staffordshire Inquiry Do Not Uphold the Use of Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratios as a Screening Test for ‘Bad’Hospitals’. QJM: An International Journal of Medicine 106, no. 9 (2013): 849–54.

 

The Enforced Silence of the Dissenters

Historians Silence on False History

The Tuam Children’s Home or to give it its full title, St. Mary’s Home, Tuam was not exclusively a mother and baby home. It functioned as a refuge for mothers and their children and abandoned and unwanted children which included disabled children. It is called a mother and baby home by scandal propagators to bolster the lie that the women running the home hated bastards and so abused and murdered them. This barefaced lie is based on a very excitable interpretation of death certificates.

Furthermore, many of the falsehoods upon which the scandal are founded requires that contradictory evidence be kept from public view. That is a role to which the abusive keyboard warriors and thugs have taken upon themselves to perform, and they do so, not only with gusto, but with malice. When dissenting voices are kept silent by abuse and thuggery, alarm bells roar loudly. So let us start defeating the thugs by elucidating the evidence which they work so hard to keep out of public view.

I present an account written by the late former editor of the Connacht Tribune, (a local Galway newspaper) and former resident of the Tuam Children’s Home, John Cunningham. Despite it being well documented and reported years before the current scandal, his evidence has been completely ignored. Cunningham wrote affectionately about his time in the Tuam Home and the care afforded to him there as a sickly child by a woman called Mary. John’s mother died shortly after his birth, and his father who had other children to look after, could not manage a new-born baby, the other children and provide for his family at the same time. Accordingly, little John was placed in the care of the women of the children’s home.

He wrote of his fondness he had for the Home, explaining that when his time came to return to his family ‘he stopped eating [and] mitched school’. ‘In retrospect, [Cunningham wrote] it is easy now to see that there was a second loss for me’.[1] Cunningham’s story dismisses a major canard of the scandal propagators. Cunningham was not illegitimate, and yet he was supposedly ‘imprisoned’ in a Mother and Baby Home.

The correct name of the institution is St. Mary’s Children’s Home and in all the historical sources it is referred to mostly as the ‘children’s home’. It was a refuge for poor, sick, abandoned, disabled and abused young children and sometimes their mothers, whether their children were legitimate or illegitimate. That is another critical fact completely lost through its deliberate misnaming of the refuge as the ‘Tuam Mother and Baby Home’. The intention is quite clear; the false name is a barefaced attempt to mislead the public into thinking that unmarried mothers and their children were victims of a cruel murderous regime. Moreover, when the institution’s real name is used, it takes a lot of the bite out of the allegations and so is far less useful to their intended purpose.

[1]  Siggins, ‘Galway Insights’.

 

False History – Understanding the role of Cognitive Biases

This documentary financed by the Canadian government provides a good overview of the outcomes due to our cognitive biases combined with the democracy of the internet and social media. The one thing the documentary makers neglect to do is explain what a cognitive bias is. It is a systematic error in thinking that impacts one’s choices and judgments. In other words when it comes to information processing the human mind makes mistakes. Most of the mistakes are made in a such systematic way that they are predictable. There is only one big problem, most of us are unaware that we may be processing information which has no bases in reason.  The upshot is that we now live in a democracy of the gullible, but we need to turn the tide of belief in conspiracy theories by teaching critical thinking skills in schools. Enjoy.